The opening picture says a thousand words. 🙁
It the thing all winter lovers dread: snow conditions are lousy and the weather is acting like it has forgotten how to make snow.
Even during winters that eventually turn out quite well for us, there have been periods like these. So we just gotta stick-and-jab until the deck gets re-shuffled.
So, lets get started with what’s up now and play it forward:
Right now…
Snow cover is really thin, hardly more than a few inches in town. So, I really can’t recommend coming here from any distance to ride your snowmobile.
Are there places you CAN ride a snowmobile and slither by on really marginal conditions? Sure… But just because you can doesn’t mean that you should. As early as we still are in this winter season, the smart call is to keep your money in your pocket and invest in a better snowmobiling weekend down the line.
What’s wrong?
Well…it’s actually very simple to explain! The Polar Vortex (PV) is locked north of the Arctic Circle near Alaska. The mean trough position over the western United States ensures that storms cut toward the Great Lakes:
Under this regime, there is NO PATHWAY for Arctic cold into the eastern United States.
From a couple of weeks ago, I did warn that days like these were coming with my December 12th post. So, this shouldn’t have been a surprise if you were paying attention to me. 😉
Anything for next week?
Once it becomes cold enough for snow again next week, a couple of modest weather systems will roll through here Tuesday into early Wednesday.
We may get lucky with a pulse of lake-effect snow Tuesday night, which could help out places like Moose River Plains. But it’s just wait and see stuff at the moment.
Would love to get something to spring me loose for my first mid-week Plains run of the season. 😉
Looking ahead…
The ENSM forecasts are showing a tremendous spike in the Arctic Oscillation into New Year’s Day, then a sharp drop toward neutral thereafter:
Usually, such a strong Arctic Oscillation positive phase (AO+) is bad news for cold and snow around here. But such a spike and fall may be required to shock the North American weather pattern out of the death lock we’re in now.
While the Polar Vortex (PV) would still be near the Arctic Circle, it should be moving away from Alaska and open a pathway for seasonally cold air to reach into ilsnow land:
But I gotta say this will probably take several days after New Year’s Day to fully materialize. So, there may be some more pain to endure prior to the weekend of January 4/5.
Furthermore, this appears to be much more of a lake-effect snow regime than a nor-easter storm pattern. But hey, almost anything is better than the game we’ve got playing in town now, eh?
One more thing…
Thank you to everyone who has contributed to the GoFundMe campaign set up for my Dad (Walter Harr) and to all who have sent kind words our way.
I have been blown away by the support and love.
Here is some background on Dad’s condition:
If you want to make a contribution, you can go to this link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/unforeseen-medical-issues-causing-hardship
Any amount that you can easily afford will help and be greatly appreciated.
Thank you!
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
This report is brought to you by Progressive Motorsports, celebrating their 27th year. They live, eat and breathe snowmobiling. Stop in today and see for yourself! Be sure to tell Karen that Darrin @ ilsnow.com sent ya.
