North Atlantic Oscillation
When will winter stand up and be counted? Update 12/3/12
Winter poked his head around here last week, but that seems like a distant memory now. What’s going on? This forecast panel for December 4th shows the problem that I have been talking about for the past week or so: The powerful Bering Sea Omega Ridge and Gulf of Alaska Vortex couplet remains cemented in […]
Long Range Weather Update: 11/26/12
After this week’s cold and snow there will be a significant warm-up starting this weekend, especially by Sunday. This panel shows the mechanics of why we have not been able to sustain cold for weeks at a time, despite having the OPPOSITE North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation pattern compared to last winter: The strong blocking Bering Sea Ridge and […]
End of November: Update 11/20/12
Last night’s ECMWF is painting an intriguing picture for November 28th/29th, which is one possible manifestation of the AO-/NAO- pattern I talked about yesterday: The Canadian Polar vortex is dropping southward, possibly on its way to Hudson’s Bay. The Greenland Block is starting to show up as well. While this happens, you can see a […]
Winter’s first blast coming this weekend: Update 11/19/12
We haven’t had any real rain or snow over the past two weeks, but temperatures have regularly fallen into the teens at night. This has resulted in ice skimmed ponds and frozen ground. A strong disturbance is forecast to track from the Great Lakes across the Adirondacks on Saturday: By Saturday morning, it should be […]
November Weather Outlook: 11/15/12
As per my weather outlook from last week, we will be waiting a while for our first significant snow of the season in the Adirondacks. This ECMWF panels shows our problem, loud and clear! This configuration of the Polar Vortex (PV) displaced over far northern Canada combined with the Gulf of Alaska storm (X) teleconnects […]
