No more waiting.
Snowmobiling season is around the corner for the central Adirondacks and other parts of the North Country. Anticipation is sky high!
As always, we start with what’s happening and play it forward.
On December 5th, seasonal snowfall at Indian Lake, NY cooperative weather station was 18.7 inches, well above climatology. November wasn’t severely cold, but cold and snowy enough to give us a wintry look at times.
Snow cover extent is impressive into north-central and northeastern United States.
Closer to home:
Read all the way and find my news and notes on the start of snowmobiling season for the central Adirondacks!
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November 2025
Looking at nationwide temperature anomaly:
Comparing with 2013 analog
November 2025 did not match the severe cold in 2013. It was chilly in the northeast and warm in the west this year. The Louisiana Purchase was much warmer than the 2013 analog.
The monthly CanSIPS ensemble had a pretty good idea for November 2025.
850mb temperature exists about a mile above sea level, but can be used as a reasonable proxy for surface temperature patterns. This was a solid pattern match for November 2025.
December 2025
With December being the start of meteorological winter, it’s time to hold analogs less tightly (especially if the matches are slipping) and use available long range model-ology.
CanSIPS has the hot hand, let’s use it!
Players on the field:
- Cross-Polar flow into Canada around the Polar Vortex (PV)
- Some North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO-) blocking
- Active short wave (S/W) train originating over southwestern United States
This appears active and snowy at times for the northeastern United States.
Forecast 850mb temperature anomaly pattern looks encouraging!
Snow helps us more when weather remains cold enough to build snowpack. This doesn’t mean NO possibility of brief thaws or warm-ups. Almost anything can happen in a month, but I’ll gladly take my chances with this setup.
As an example, check out the EPS ensemble parade of cold shots into mid-December!
January 2026
Lots going on here!
- Strong cross-Polar flow into Canada from Siberia
- Notable North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO-) blocking
- Multiple shortwave energy trains (S/W)
Appears brutally cold in western Canada! This also suggests strong temperature gradient over eastern United State to fuel stronger weather systems.
From a month out, that looks good! No guarantees offered here, but I’ll gladly take my chances with it.
February 2026
We’re stretching or breaking the limits of CanSIPS forecasting skill by then. But let’s take a look anyway:
Similar to January, not bad! But I do reserve the right to change my mind based on new data down the road.
La Niña Update
ENSO is in weak La Niña phase and projected to become neutral early 2026. In my opinion, that should be good for us. Strong El Niño or La Niña events tend to mess up winter over the northeastern United States.
Opening bell of 2025-26 snowmobiling season!
Snowmobiling season starts in Hamilton and northern Herkimer counties at the conclusion of big game hunting season AFTER SUNDOWN Sunday, December 7th. There is NO late bowhunting season past December 7th in the central Adirondacks.
If all goes to plan, DEC should swing the gates open for Moose River Plains on Monday, December 8th!
To ride into Moose River Plains, park and ride from Brown’s Farm parking lot at 1517 Cedar River Road, Indian Lake, NY. Fee remains $10 per snowmobile on the honor system. Payment drop boxes located on the tree in the upper lot and front of the barn on the lower lot.
Towns of Webb and Inlet will open its snowmobile trail system Monday, December 8th.
Perkins Clearing and Speculator Tree Farm logging
As far as I know, the following will be plowed for logging and closed for snowmobiling this winter.
Perkins Clearing
- Southern Perkins Clearing Road into Mud Lake Road (use Southern bypass to/from Route 30 road crossing)
North end of Perkins Clearing Road from Mason Lake is being plowed for logging through the end of hunting season. I hear that plowing will stop from the north end after hunting season ends. But last year, plowing continued well into December. Praying for a speedier end this winter!
Speculator Tree Farm
- Fly Creek Road and Long Level Road (Part of S41D)
- Old Route 30 (Part of C4) between Cave Hill Road and Fly Creek Road intersections (use Old Route 30 bypass)
- Gilmantown trail (C4B)
C8 trail between Indian Lake to Cedar River Headquarters
I’ve been told there is logging and a subsequent trail reroute in vicinity of Sprague Brook for this winter, which is about mid-way between Indian Lake and Headquarters. More on that as I get more info.
That’s all I’ve got for now. Let the games begin!
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
