It has been snowing at times in ilsnow land. Winter is around the corner! And it’s time for an update after collecting another month of data.
I have no earthly idea yet whether we’ll have rideable snowmobile trail conditions for Old Forge Snodeo. But I remain cautiously optimistic that Winter 2025-26, can be good or at least “good enough” for the central Adirondacks.
As always, I’ll start with what’s going on, then play it forward from there.
October temperature anomalies
October 2025 was VERY MILD over the central United States.
October 2013 (used for my analog) centered warmth on the northeastern United States.
That looks like a mismatch. But the 2025 warm anomaly was displaced only one time zone west from the 2013 warm anomaly. That’s a relatively small distance on a planetary scale. And the first week of October 2025 was quite warm over the northeastern United States. There was unseasonable warmth with a few days of highs near 80*F in the central Adirondacks.
For now, I think Winter 2013-14 remains a viable analogue.
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October snow cover expansion
The early autumn snow coverage explosion from Siberia into Eurasia has leveled off. October 2025 ended slightly ahead of par.
Snow cover spread across North America was notably sub-par in October
In early November, snow cover advance continues to lag over North America. Snow cover is also having a hard time pressing into Europe (noted by red on the map).
Does that mean we’re screwed? Not necessarily! Last year at this time was fairly similar.
December-January-February last winter looked like this:
Not bad!
November
CanSIPS ensemble looks cold for November 2025 in the eastern United States. Persistent negative phased North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO-) should divert Arctic cold shots our way.
November cold IS NOT mid-winter cold. But this pattern would build snow cover in eastern Canada. In a sense, November would be “moving month” toward winter after a mild October over much of North America.
EPS ensemble modelology shows this in action! Note the parade of cold shots into northeastern United States and relative warmth building around Greenland.
November 2013 was robustly cold for much of the eastern United States. I’m unsure whether the cold will be quite as strong this year. But I believe November will favor cold over warmth.
December
Polar Vortex (PV) dug into Canada in December 2013 and placed the northeastern United States in a battle zone between strong cold to our northwest and warmth to our south.
The result was an active and erratic, up-and-down temperature month.
December 2025 could be frustrating for winter lovers here in upstate New York. But significant cold air may build over south-central Canada that month, allowing winter to seize control as we turn the calendar to 2026.
January
January 2014 had what we look for:
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO-) blocking
- Displaced Polar Vortex (PV)
- West coast North America (PNA+) ridging
January 2026 could become cold and active if we get a similar setup this winter.
La Niña update
NOAA Climate Prediction Center has officially declared a La Niña Advisory. The warm pools in north Pacific Ocean and north Atlantic Ocean are similar to 2013. And like this year, there was weak La Niña heading into Winter 2013-14.
Most long term modelology indicate weak La Niña into early Winter 2025-26, then fading into neutral ENSO conditions mid to late winter. CFSv2 ensemble forecast is an example of this.
Bottom line
I see no evidence to indicate winter will be dead on arrival. But I don’t find anything suggesting a top shelf winter like 1993-94 or 2002-03.
This may be a winter with frequent enough cold snaps and snow events, like 2013-14, to keep snowmobile track rolling more often than not.
Be ready to RIDE when the time comes!
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
Thanks for the forecast, Darrin. I really like your reports. Always honest and sometimes funny. THINK SNOW! And when it gets here, RIDE!!!