Into the Back 9 of Winter

February 25, 2025 Trail Conditions, Weather Blog No Comments

Even after a couple days of near 40*F warmth, I’m holding on to nearly 2-foot snowpack at the ilsnow storm center in Indian Lake, NY.

Tuesday’s rain was minor, less than a quarter-inch. Under these circumstances, you count ANY win!

Leaving Presidents’ Week Holiday, we enter The Back 9 of Winter. Whether snowmobiling is great or not, our days are becoming numbered. Climatology works against us in March.

Climo max temperature, Indian Lake, NY

33*F – March 1
35*F – March 8
38*F – March 15
40*F – March 22
43*F – March 29

As we enter meteorological spring (March is the start), it’s nearly imperative to begin with robust snow pack, which we have in much of the Adirondacks.

March Madness or March Meltdown?

Unfortunately, the Top 5 composite analogs for current sea surface temperatures anomalies (SSTA) lack a strong cold signature over eastern United States for March.

There is a moderate bias toward heavier precipitation from Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania, which does imply an active weather pattern for us.

Ensemble modelology appears chaotic into the first couple weeks of March. But they generally agree on cold shots for weekends and warm ups mid week. Demons, as always, will emerge in the details.

We’ll snowmobile well into March, possibly into April for the die-hards. But there is an open question as to how much QUALITY snowmobiling we’ll enjoy.

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Tuesday’s ride

I had been on the shelf since Friday’s ride. So, I was willing to give it a shot and see if there was anything good from the compound.

Other than S85/Ski Hut trail, the only groom I found was on C8 heading out of Indian Lake toward Cedar River Headquarters. With warm weather, grooming yielded limited improvement over what the weekend carnage probably looked like Sunday. This was one of the better sections.

Didn’t have the appetite to ride out to Moose River Plains. So, I looked at other avenues.

Neither C8/Sabael trail or C8A/Old S84 heading to Blue Mountain Lake had been groomed. Both trails were a ribbon of firm studder bumps and rolling moguls through the forest. Not fun…

After I rolled S85/Ski Hut trail back-n-forth to yield a bit of pleasure, I terminated the ride after 11 miles.

Hey, being a local means I can cut bait on a ride with no skin off my back. I did feel bad for the hand full of out-of-towners bouncing over the bumps.

Unfortunately, timing a warmup immediately after a high-volume snowmobiling weekend has left our trails ROUGH!

I wouldn’t expect to find much mid-week magic out there. But you’re certainly free to try.