As I’m writing, it’s rainy, foggy and totally depressing outside. I’m also fighting a cold and feeling ZERO motivation.
I’ve been here before, way too many times over the years. I survive #summersucks and this is my reward? Come on, bro. I didn’t sign up for THIS!
Some people have given up on snowmobiling and moved on to other things. But I don’t work for them. I’m here for those of us who keep their skin in the game.
Current situation
The North America big weather picture is completely broken. There is essentially NO snow cover east of the Mississippi River. And you’d have to go waaayyy north into Quebec to find meaningful snow. Current conditions are so bad, it’ll be a while before we’re snowmobile riding.
Upper air pattern shows no pathway for Arctic cold into the lower 48 states. Yet another healthy short wave (SW) weather system is a rain-maker for us this week.
Note the complete lack of anomalous cold over the Canadian Arctic. If it ain’t cold there, it ain’t getting cold here. Can’t lay it out any more straight forward than that.
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Looking ahead
The first week of January should witness transition to a pattern allowing cross-Polar flow to charge the Canadian Arctic with true cold for the first time this winter. Strong East Pacific Oscillation induced (EPO-) ridging would finally displace the Polar Vortex (PV) away from Alaska.
Down the line, we’ll need to monitor interactions between the Polar jet and Subtropical Jet (STJ) to gauge significant snow opportunities.
It will take at least several days to purge unseasonable warmth from the Canadian Arctic and prime the pump for winter. But the Siberian pipeline should become firmly established by the end of next week.
Long term
El Niño continues to reign large and in-charge. This makes me skeptical about the long term staying power of the upcoming pattern change. But hey, let’s bring winter here before we worry about that.
Bottom line
The upcoming pattern change will give us some reason for hope. But I don’t see any obvious chances for big snows for at least another week to perhaps 10 days. By the time we’re riding again, a significant chunk of snowmobiling season will have been pissed away. We never get those lost riding days back.
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
