Monday, December 4th Update: The ilsnow storm center in Indian Lake, NY picked up a couple inches of wet snow Sunday night, which has already turned to glop. With warmish temperatures the past few days and plowing on Perkins Clearing Road, there isn’t much to ride.
As for Moose River Plains, you may be able to ride in from the end of Cedar River Road, even though the seasonal road to Cedar River Headquarters was plowed down to an icy base during hunting season. But conditions would be soggy and sloppy until things tighten up Monday night. Don’t expect to ride thru Inlet to Old Forge though, with snow cover fading as you press into western Adirondacks.
Bottom line is that snowmobile riding options are rather limited. It’s probably best to wait for better days.
Saturday December 2nd report
For ilsnow land, snowmobiling season starts at the close of big game hunting season after sundown, Sunday December 3rd in northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties. This will make Monday December 4th opening day.
We endured #summersucks to get here. So, let’s celebrate!
SLO-vember to SNO-vember
Through mid-November, autumn was very sluggish. We ran well behind on milestones like first froze, first freeze, first snow flakes, first measurable snow, etc.
But I saw signs that November could end with a bang. Indeed, the final ten days of November dumped nearly a foot-and-a-half of snowfall at the ilsnow storm center in Indian Lake, NY.
The final numbers for November 2023 were robust, in comparison to climatology and especially in comparison to the previous 3 years.
2023: Mean temperature 30.6*F, Snowfall 18.1 inches
CLIMO: Mean temperature 32.6*F, Snowfall 9.1 inches
2020: Mean temperature 35.0*F, Snowfall 5.0 inches
2021: Mean temperature 33.9*F, Snowfall 7.2 inches
2022: Mean temperature 36.9*F, Snowfall 5.9 inches
Although we turned the tide nicely in November, does that mean we’re off to the races for winter?
Not so fast, grasshopper….
As of Saturday morning, we’re holding a snow pack. But periods of rain, drizzle and fog through Sunday will continue to eat away at it.
And then we’ve got…
El Niño Update
There has been internet chatter that 2023-24 El Niño is weak to moderate.
That is FALSE!
The clinical definition of “strong” El Niño is +1.5*C or higher sea surface temperature anomaly in Niño 3.4 region. We’ve been there since September.
Thankfully El Niño isn’t as strong as in 1982-83, 1997-98 or 2015-16. But at present, it’s the 6th strongest El Niño since 1950.
One characteristic of strong El Niño is far below normal snowfall for the northern tier of United States from the Rockies to the Great Lakes. Note the expansive negative snow cover anomaly in that region now!
Notwithstanding our explosive snow finish to November, I see plenty of evidence that El Niño is doing its dirty work and should haunt us at times this winter.
Coming up…
Our next snow opportunity may arrive Sunday night with decent shortwave (SW) energy tunneling under a high latitude blocking high over Greenland.
Temperatures will be marginal. So, we’re looking at Sunday rain changing to heavy wet snow at night. Here was last night’s RGEM depiction of the event from Sunday into Monday morning:
Keep track with my daily forecast updates at Weather & Webcams | ilsnow.com . When you get there, you’ll notice live feed links to most of my webcam network.
Assuming that opportunity comes through, opening week of snowmobiling season would support early season riding in parts of the central Adirondacks.
But we may endure a rough patch by mid-December with much of the true cold locked up on the wrong side of the North Pole for a while.
Of course, the demons always lie within the details, which are impossible to know with 2 weeks of lead time. But I’ve learned that it’s best to cheat warm on a mid to long range forecast until the weather shows otherwise.
Over the far horizon, latest GFS modelology is hinting at the stratospheric Polar Vortex (PV) stretching. This indicates we may become busy with snow and cold again leading up to Christmas.
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Looking around
Moose River Plains
On Friday, I took a drive to the end of Cedar River Road for a look-see. The seasonal road had been plowed and sanded toward Cedar River Headquarters, but has maintained solid ice base.
DEC will open the gates into Moose River Plains on Monday for snowmobiling season. Assuming we get decent snow Sunday night, we would be able to ride into Moose River Plains from Browns Farm parking lot.
Perkins Clearing
Perkins Clearing Road was plowed from both ends, down to dirt and gravel at times.
Unfortunately, snowmobiling access into Perkins Clearing will be messed up until about Christmas with Perkins Clearing Road, Mud Lake Road and Perkins Clearing -T intersection to Sled Harbor all being plowed for logging.
As for the remainder of winter, the southern 2 miles of Perkins Clearing Road will remain closed to snowmobiling, which means we’ll be using the southern bypass route again. We may get Mud Lake Road reopened for snowmobiling by the end of January.
Speculator Tree Farm
I didn’t make it there to take pictures. But I was told that much of Elm Lake Road will be closed to snowmobiling this winter for logging. But Cave Hill Road, Fly Creek Road, Long Level Road to Wolf Hill Road will remain open for snowmobiling.
Lakes?
Smaller lakes have frozen over. But bigger lakes need more time. South end of Indian Lake had some slush, but nothing solid. Remainder of the lake is wide open water.
Detour in Lake Pleasant
No riding on the lakes yet, but I have important news for the winter.
Access to Fish Mountain-Oxbow trail from the bay on Sacandaga Lake has been closed by the property owner.
Thankfully, a detour has been established. You’ll need to get off the lake where you’d access the Fawn Lake trail. Then, hang a left to ride along Fawn Lake Road about 0.6 miles until you take a right to ride the seasonal road toward the burn pit and continue on your way.
When you’re riding from Oxbow to Lake Pleasant, just follow the directions in reverse.
Take it easy when you ride Fawn Lake Road and respect the residents. Loss of this detour would be devastating.
That’s all I’ve got for now. We’re on the cusp of our favorite time of year and I can’t wait to get at it!
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
