The article title was just clickbait to get you here. Winter outlooks have severely limited accuracy and cannot account for timing of singular events that can make-or-break a snowmobiling season.
However, the development of El Niño can be a strong clue into what winter may look like.
This chart shows a large and strengthening bank of warm water over eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean:
You can also notice a large expanse of “warm” water in the northern Pacific Ocean. In between, there is a swath of chilly water extending from Hawaii toward Baha California.
During winter, this will likely enhance the Pacific sub-tropical jet steam into the southern United States, with frequent storminess into the Gulf Coast area.
This often tele-connects with milder and drier than “normal” winter conditions across much of Canada into the northern tier of United States. It’s a major reason why strong El Niño events often produce poor winters for ilsnow land.
Climate Prediction Center now indicates a 71 percent likelihood that ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) will evolve into a strong El Niño for the upcoming winter.
What else?
Even though El Niño is a major player, it’s not the only game in town. North America Oscillation was moderately to at times strongly negative (NAO-) though the summer, at least partially responsible for the copious rain we received here.
If long term NAO- holds into winter, it could set up high latitude blocking patterns at times, favoring nor’easters over Great Lakes cutter storms at times.
Playing it forward
Unfortunately, Climate Prediction Center indicates likelihood of a mild autumn for the northeastern United States. Given how autumn has played out in recent years, I don’t have the heart to disagree.
Even so, it will be become important to monitor snow cover spread into North America during October and November to determine whether winter can get somehow get an early jump around here.
Speaking of snow, ’tis the season for snow to begin accumulating near the Arctic circle. Yes indeed, summer is OVER!
Bottom line
No “winter outlook” changes my approach to snowmobiling. I’m ready to ride wherever or whenever available from December into March. When it ain’t happening for me one week, I’ll wait for the next.
If we have learned anything from the past several winters, patient and opportunistic snowmobilers usually fare the best.
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
