Sunday’s 60*F Chinook and Monday’s cold rain left ilsnow land in a world of hurt. The above picture from Monday afternoon tells the tale. Strong winds have also knocked down trees.
Thankfully, combined rainfall from Sunday and Monday only totaled 0.50″ to 0.75″ for much of the central Adirondacks. This prevented a wholesale washout and we live to ride another day – if we get another dump of snow.
But… Will that happen? Can we get winter to come back one more time?
The week ahead
Flurries/snow showers into Tuesday morning have coated the remnant snowpack and bare spots white. Gusty winds are blowing it to smithereens. But at least it looks a tad better. Cold weather through Tuesday night will further staunch the bleeding.
For later Wednesday afternoon and evening, we should get grazed by a minor weather system to give another thin application of white paint. After that, temperatures should run around or a bit above climatology Thursday into Friday.
Saturday Storm?
By Saturday morning, we’ll have a high-amplitude jet stream trough plowing through the Great Lakes, well aligned with the Polar Vortex (PV). Cold air would be funneled into the back side of the storm from Quebec.
I won’t throw up snowfall forecast numbers yet. But this appears to be a robust snow event in the making, with eventual storm track and intensity determining the winners.
After the storm passes through, we’ll get a full-on, blustery cold shot Saturday night into Sunday.
After that?
If we get the white dump, you’d need to grab-it-while-we-got-it. After Sunday, the flow will rapidly flatten out and scour away the cold. This would leave us exposed to another rapid intense warm-up.
Most modelology emsembles show a further northward retreat of the Polar Vortex (PV) through Spring equinox and into the end of March. Assuming this to be correct, you can probably stick a fork through snowmobiling season after next week.
The way things have gone this winter, I’d gladly take one more crack at it.
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
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