Tuesday brought 50*F temperatures and an inch of rain, as if we weren’t already hurting badly enough. Creeks are flowing once again!
Snow pack took another significant hit. Exposed areas are thin, with bare areas. Shady areas still hold anywhere from a few inches to a foot-plus of remnant that will freeze hard as a brick Wednesday night.
I took a walk to these spots in town Wednesday afternoon. This is BAD! But we’re not yet at the point of no return. There is still an icy sub-base for new snow to bond to.
Help on the way Friday!
Short range modelology has latched on the anticipated snow event for late Thursday night through Friday. All signs are pointing toward a quick-hitting, but significant snowfall for the North Country.
Weekend Outlook
For the sake of this exercise, I’m assuming we approach or reach double-digit (10+ inch) snowfall on Friday.
Seasonal roads such as Perkins Clearing, Moose River Plains, Powley Road, Speculator Tree Farm and Newcomb trail would be back in business. Even so, there could be some leftover washout hazards.
Narrow woods trails would be more dicey with thinner trail base and be more prone to leftover washout hazards. Any grooming on these trails would occur on a case-by-case decision by clubs and municipalities.
Good news: C4 trail from Oak Mountain to Perkins Clearing has been reopened!
An Arctic cold front should bring a topper coat of snow-squalls on Sunday before dropping us into the deep freeze for Monday.
A word about lakes
You’ll need to think long and hard whether riding lakes is worth the risk. We have endured two washout thaws in less than a week. Indian Lake has risen nearly 3 feet. Rising water weakens shore ice. Areas near inlets and outlets would be especially dangerous if a new cover of snow hides the trouble areas.
Next week?
Cold weather should hold through Thursday for those who can do the mid-week snowmobiling thing.
But I am growing concerned about a one or two day “Chinook” by around Friday or Saturday that would shoot temperatures well into the thaw zone before the next cold reload. The way this winter has gone, go out and grab it when we have it!
Even so… There would be opportunity for recovery into mid-March as weak stratospheric flow over North America may favor an active blocking pattern to spawn opportunities for meaningful snow.
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
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