I’m fond of saying that if it can’t snow, at least it can be cold. That way, there is hope down the road for us.
The lake-effect snow guns that smashed Tug Hill made their way into the southwestern Adirondacks on Monday.
Based on that, I would say that Powley Road is certainly good to go for snowmobile riding this week. Snowfall reports I’ve heard along that route range from 3-4 inches in Piseco to nearly a foot in Stratford.
Snowfall amounts decrease further north. But Perkins Clearing was getting heavy snow squalls when I drove by on Route 30 Monday afternoon – more than enough to make the highway greasy. Although your best play for Perkins Clearing Road remains to hit it from the north end, it appears as they may have stopped plowing the south end.
Indian Lake and Blue Mountain Lake were only good for a dusting to an inch of new snow. Moose River Plains probably did somewhat better than that, but the lake-effect guns weren’t pointed that way.
You can see that snow depth is best to the southwest of ilsnow land:
Riding this week
Snow conditions remain thin throughout the central Adirondacks. But I can say that most people who’ve ridden Perkins Clearing or Moose River Plains came away happy they were out there. And I’ve heard both areas are being groomed.
As for the narrow woods trails? Yeah, they are being ridden too. But there is not enough snow depth to bury the rocks and stand up to typical mid-winter snowmobile traffic. It’s still “at your own risk” riding.
Lakes?
Most ice thickness reports I’ve heard from last weekend were in the 6-8 inch range. Undoubtedly, Tuesday’s frigid blast helps. But keep in mind that ice thickness remains half of what it should be for the time of year. Think long and hard before you decide to rip the lakes.
If any doubts, it’s better to stay off the ice and live to ride again. A live chicken beats a dead duck, like rock always beats scissors.
The weather ahead into the weekend
Thursday looks a bit interesting with a developing coastal storm that doesn’t appear to get its act together in time to give us the home run snow we need. But we should end up with a pulse of snow ahead of an approaching Arctic front, adding to the white blanket.
Behind that system, we’ll have “no-doubt” cold bleeding into the Adirondacks on Friday, the kind of day when temperatures would slide downward as the day goes on. The bitter cold will last through Saturday before lifting out.
Opportunity knocks next week?
Today’s modelology clustered around the idea of a walloping nor’easter storm for Monday, January 17th. I’ll show you what the ECMWF was thinking.
We’ve certainly seen a number of these come and go (on paper) with the apparent opportunities missing us or not developing altogether. But this is today’s hope flavor and enjoys good cross-model support (for now).
Solid hope down the road?
Looking at the big picture from high above, I notice the GFS has been forecasting a shift in the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV), performing a loop from Greenland over the North Pole toward Russia and back. That would weaken the high altitude westerly winds in mid-January and allow increased pattern amplification over North America. This, in turn, would grant us more opportunities for cold shots and yes, significant snow events to crack winter open for us.
Indeed, the GEPS ensemble is rocking the high amplitude positive-phased Pacific North America Oscillation (PNA+) developing into the second half of January, which often leads to great things happening downstream for us. I’d certainly take my chances with this, over anything I’ve seen so far this winter!
I can finally jump onto the hope wagon with both feet and let the chips fall where they may fall. Believe me, I’m more than ready to make up for lost time on the snowmobile.
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
This report is brought to you by Allen Van Hoff – Howard Hanna Real Estate Services. Voted Realtor of the Year 2016 by Southern Adirondacks Realtors Inc., Allen Van Hoff is best described as a warm and friendly, attentive full-time real estate professional with a passion for the area and people he serves.
