Each year, I’m asked what kind of winter we’ll have, even while we’re still basking in late summer heat and humidity.
My answer? We need to see how weather patterns evolve through autumn before we can hazard a guess as to how winter may jump off the starting blocks.
It is no secret that autumn has been noticeably warmer than climatology. The prevailing weather pattern suggests to me that winter will be sluggish to start in 2021 – notwithstanding some of those promising predictions (actually, blind guesses) being passed around the internet as clickbait.
Pacific Woes
The northeastern Pacific Ocean is gripped in a classic negative phased Pacific Oscillation (PDO-), marked by a large pool of anomalously cold surface water in the Gulf of Alaska:
The configuration strongly favors stormy weather over Alaska and western United States, whilst periodically flooding the remainder of North America with mild Pacific air-masses.
The lagging spread of snow cover across North America is a symptom of this pattern. You can see that snow cover spread had been behind schedule at each turn in November, shown by the red areas:
That’s a BIG problem if you want winter to get here quickly in the northeastern United States.
Lake Effect Snow?
Lake Ontario is running at near record warmth for the climo period dating back to 1995.
I can hear that battle cry of the snow monger now: “With the Great Lakes being so warm, the snow belts will get buried under lake-effect snow!”
Not so fast, grasshopper! It doesn’t work like that if there isn’t sufficient cold air to generate the appropriate response. Regardless of lake temperature, the temperature profile through the atmospheric boundary layer above the lake is a far greater factor. One only needs to look back to last winter as a reminder.
Cursed?
I’ve noticed an interesting decade cycle. Let’s see if you can follow it:
1991-92
2001-02
2011-12
All of those are remembered as lousy winters for ilsnow land. It’s almost eerie. Does that mean 2021-22 will follow in those footsteps? I can’t say whether that’s going to happen. But the slow start to the snow season over North America has me wondering about it….
Time to panic?
No one knows for sure what the future holds. So I’m not going to hazard a guess on what things may look like by January or February. But I have seen enough to believe that winter will likely have a number of “false starts” into December before finally taking hold.
So far, I haven’t seen a whole lot to love.
But my battle plan remains same as always: BE READY TO RIDE!
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
p.s. Join the ILSnow Trading Post on Facebook and look for snowmobiling and other items for sale!
This report is brought to you by Steet Ponte Auto Group. Many of the vehicles here in Indian Lake are bought from the Steet Ponte. Co-owner Joe Steet is a huge fan and booster of ilsnow.com. If you’re looking for a new or pre-owned truck, give Steet Ponte a good look.
