November 2019 certainly wasn’t the second coming of last year’s November Snow-mageddon. But we did manage to have snow cover throughout the majority of the month with overall temperatures averaging 3-4 degrees below normal. Not bad for a month that usually drags on, and on, and on…
Indian Lake even scored it’s first sub-zero morning of the season, clicking in at -2*F on the morning of November 17th.
So, with November nearly down the drain, what’s going to happen in early December?
Sunday Snow Event?
Of course, the model-ology is presenting different wrinkles and possible solutions, but the GEFS ensembles seem pretty solid for an Ohio Valley low to undergo secondary coastal development Sunday into Monday:
This may lead to a pulse of moderate-to-heavy snowfall for the central Adirondacks Sunday afternoon and several hours into Sunday night. There is still much question as to what the event would do for us on Monday, but I think we’ll end up with enough snow to restore the winter-like luster we had in mid-November.
After that?
In the wake of the Sunday-Monday event, the pattern does a pretty good job of holding seasonally cold air over the eastern United States next week:
But with storminess expected to roll into the western United States by the weekend of December 7-8 (manifested by negative phase of Pacific North American Oscillation), I do expect a surge of milder Pacific air to wash through here at some point during second week of December:
With the potential warm-up being at least 10 days away, I can’t really hazard a meaningful guess into details. But this is not a look that a winter lover in ilsnow land should get excited over.
But…
It appears the PNA- pattern could be short-lived as it may be slated to collapse by December 12th:
I’ll be first to say this isn’t a brutally cold or stormy look with the Polar Vortex (PV) north of Hudson’s Bay. But there would be an opportunity for seasonably cold air and snow to return to ilsnow land for Snodeo Weekend.
By the way, snowmobiling season on state land in Hamilton and northern Herkimer Counties begins at the conclusion of big game hunting season at sundown on Sunday, December 8, 2019 – making December 9th opening day, conditions permitting.
Looking beyond…
The sea surface temperatures anomaly map is still showing healthy blob of relatively mild water over the Gulf of Alaska, a manifestation of the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO+). This may teleconnect favorably with frequent cold shots into the eastern United States as we push into winter.
I don’t get into seasonal or even monthly outlooks anymore because I haven’t found a way to be especially accurate with them. But I can take a shot a couple of weeks out and see that we may have the opportunity to ride Moose River Plains by Snodeo weekend. However, that ride-able snow may have to come just in time…
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
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