Some very powerful storms have rolled across North America this autumn with record-smashing snows over parts of the Rockies and into the Dakotas.
More recently we had our Halloween storm, which brought devastating flooding and extremely damaging wind to ilsnow land. In the end, I witnessed my first snowflakes at the season on the morning of November 1st, with the wind blowing them into a horizonal curtain. No snow stuck to the ground at my house, but the western Adirondacks did pick up their first slight accumulations of the season.
As we press deeper into autumn, I see ample evidence that winter will be getting to ilsnow land sooner rather than later.
North America Snowcover
The rapid advance of snow cover across North America is strong evidence that winter-cold is wasting no time planting it’s flag:
Given the history of strong storms this autumn and the rapid advance of snowcover, I believe it’s only a matter of time before the central Adirondacks gets it’s first significant snowfall of the season.
Indian Lake received 3 FEET of snowfall in November 2018. That was a white unicorn and trying to predict an encore would be foolish. Having said that, the average November snowfall for at Indian Lake since 1992-93 is 9.5 inches. So, if the climatology “over/under” is 10 inches and I had a pile of money to gamble, I’d push all the chips to the middle of the table and bet “over”.
Arctic Sea Ice
Arctic sea ice ran far below normal this summer into early autumn:
Ironically, a relatively “ice-free” Arctic Ocean can be a harbinger for the rapid advance of cold and snow across North America in autumn.
How so? Remember that ice reflects much of its solar insolation back into space because of its white coloration. However, seawater is darker and absorbs much more solar insolation than ice. The seawater releases its relative warmth high into the atmosphere and weakens the temperature contrast between the Arctic and mid-latitude regions.
The result? A weaker jet-steam which is more prone to buckling and sending frequent cold shots into the mid-latitude regions:
The set up manifests itself as the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO-). ENSM forecasts are showing the Arctic Oscillation is ready to tank into negative territory into the heart of November:
It may be a solid indication that plenty of cold will be displaced from the Arctic and deep into North America over the 7-10 days. Up until now, the Pacific North American Oscillation has been steeply negative (PNA-) much of autumn, which goes a long way into explaining why it has been so cold and snowy over the western United States:
But the ENSM forecasts are showing a strong rebound to neutral or even positive (PNA+) as we press into mid-November. This would result in pressing the weight of Arctic cold outbreaks more toward the central and eastern United States as November wears on.
And like I said before with the strong autumn storms, ilsnow land will have opportunities for significant snow events sooner rather than later. If there is a storm that clicks just right in terms of intensity and track….we could net a major to historic November snow event here.
This week
A minor weather system will roll through Tuesday with a bit of lake-effect snow on the tail end Tuesday night under a reinforcing shot of cold air.
The real fun possibility will be Thursday night into early Friday as low pressure passes by Long Island:
This could be an honest-to-goodness widespread, plowable snow event for much of Upstate New York, as the GEM shows:
After that?
ECMWF wants to unlock the video game cheat code for surges of unseasonably cold air masses after Thursday night’s storm into mid-November.
This may be a logical consequence of the strong AO- pattern expected to unfold over the next 7-10 days. During this time frame, lake-effect snow events and nor’easter type storms would be on the table.
So, we’ve got much to look over this week. If Thursday night’s storm becomes an iron-clad lock and the cold pattern rings true, I’ll be cranking up the ilsnow storm storm center really soon, perhaps within the next day or two!
But for the love of all things good and true, please don’t ask me what the trail conditions will be for opening day of snowmobiling season or Snodeo weekend because there’s no way I can possibly know from a month away.
Let’s just enjoy the opportunities as they come and relish in the glow of anticipation for the upcoming winter, OK?
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
ps. I’m working on a project that I’m very excited about! I’m looking to launch it by the start of December. It will be a lot of fun. 🙂
This report is brought to you by Progressive Motorsports, celebrating their 27th year. They live, eat and breathe snowmobiling. Stop in today and see for yourself! Be sure to tell Karen that Darrin @ ilsnow.com sent ya.
