I’m not going to lie: Snowmobiling conditions SUCK right now.
That’s what Friday’s 51*F and 2 inches of rain does for us. It’s really that simple.
Around town we have a residual 4-10 inch snow pack. Those customary snow bowls on the south-central Adirondacks still hold over a foot.
But that’s not the whole story: Low-lying areas got washed out and flooded over. Cedar River Golf Course is under water, Indian Lake rose a foot overnight and Lake Abanakee is lapping onto Jerry Savarie Road. Some of that water had to wash its way over the trails to push the lakes and rivers that high.
I’m hoping that no snowmobiling bridges got washed out. But if so, the Town Crews and Clubs will have to put them back in place and that will take time, especially with the Holiday scheduling.
Disclaimer
Before I get into it, I’ll stand on my soap box:
Unless the snowmobile trails are CLOSED by the appropriate authorities, I refrain from telling people to “stay home” because everyone has their own standards for acceptable conditions to make the trip here AND the weather outlook for a week from now could easily change from the way it appears at this moment.
My job is to lay out the information, without prejudice, and let you decide on the course of action best for YOU.
So any notion that “Darrin from ilsnow.com told me to stay home” is total baloney sandwich. In the event I get any flack, I will point directly to this post.
Got it? Great!! 🙂
Christmas Week
A Canadian clipper system late Sunday night into Monday should muster a couple of inches of snow for Indian Lake and Speculator and perhaps several inches for Moose River Plains. That won’t do much around here, except freshen things up for the few people who want to hit up Moose River Plains or Perkins Clearing.
Then, seasonal cold will hold out for the remainder of the week, until the next storm tracks to our west on Friday with another shot of rain. Fingers crossed that it won’t be bad as what just happened to us.
A strong cold shot should take hold for next weekend. But I’m skeptical about the prospect of meaningful snow accompanying that cold. Since the cold air will be driven almost directly from the north, there probably won’t be any opportunity for significant lake-effect snow.
New Year’s
Here’s the part of the program where I peddle hope and talk snowmobilers down from the ledge. The GEFS ensembles are showing a nifty split flow pattern setting up around New Year’s Day:
This type of split flow pattern provides storminess from the southern jet stream with the northern jet stream locking in the cold air as the storms approach. This may give us the opportunities for significant snow events as we head into 2019.
EPS and GEPS ensembles show great support for this as well. But as always, the demons will lie in the smaller scale details as each event draws closer.
Bottom line
I haven’t seen enough to throw in the towel on winter yet. I think all that snow we got in November still means something here in ilsnow land. Just think of where we’d be right now if not for our early bounty.
On Facebook, I see those who are already condemning this winter to hell-in-a-handbasket and complain about how winter “ain’t what it used to be.” They seem to be the same people year after year, but hold on to their snowmobiles anyway.
All I know is that during most winters, I rack up thousands of snowmobiling miles and have tens-of-thousands of people visit my website per month. It seems to work for most folks. 😉
Wishing a Merry Christmas, Happy New Year and an awesome 2019 to all!
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
This report is brought to you by Progressive Motorsports, celebrating their 26th year. They live, eat and breathe snowmobiling. Stop in today and see for yourself! Be sure to tell Karen that Darrin @ ilsnow.com sent ya.
