We didn’t get much rain. But when temperatures get into the 60s like they did on Wednesday after a couple mild days to soften the snow pack, it didn’t really matter.
I went to take a short sunglasses and tee-shirt ride around the trails Wednesday morning. But there was far too much mud to make it from the garage to the trails for my liking so I bagged that idea and found this mess at the Cedar River Golf Course:
It was a surreal experience for sure!
Trails closed!
I’ll let this speak for itself:
If you are absolutely hard-up for a ride, you can try parking at Mason Lake Parking Lot about 7 miles north of Speculator and work your way into Perkins Clearing Road from the north end. That tactic would be at your own risk…
I’d say that the rest of February is essentially shot with nothing better than Swiss-cheese snow pack more typical of early April:
Any hope at all for March?
For some people, the snowmobiling season is already over and their minds are onto other things. For others, we’re looking to salvage the Back 9 of Winter.
Let’s dive into some snow climatology first. Over the past 25 years, March snowfall has averaged 22.0 inches for Indian Lake, NY. March is legendary for big snows around here with a maximum of 62.9 inches in 2001. But it can be very lean for snow with a minimum of 4.1 inches in 2006 and a smattering of other single-digit snowfalls. There is a TON of variability to March snowfall as you can see on my snowfall chart.
What needs to change?
This death-grip needs to disappear:
The Pacific (PNA-) and Atlantic (NAO+) tele-connections are stacked against us, yielding a massive Southeastern United States heat ridge. Absolutely horrible…
But a seismic change to the hemispheric pattern is expected, especially in the Atlantic region as we head into March:
The NAO+ regime should be replaced by a full-throated Greenland block (NAO-) and the southeastern United States heat ridge will have been squashed flat into a zonal flow.
The Pacific side of things won’t have changed as much with the ridge axis remaining between Hawaii and Alaska. But the PNA- regime should have significantly weakened by early March.
This pattern shift should cause weather systems to tunnel underneath the Greenland Block and PERHAPS give us opportunities for significant snow events into the first half of March.
Caution!
By no means does a Greenland Block guarantee big snows! If the block becomes too strong and settles into eastern Canada, it would suppress the storm track too far southward. You can also have the Greenland block in the right place, but with no significant weather systems to interact with it.
Also, I don’t foresee this as an especially cold pattern either. With the lack of cross-polar flow, there is no Siberian connection. The high-latitude blocking would merely force stale Continental Polar (cP) and Maritime Polar (mP) air-masses into the northeastern United States instead of true Arctic air-masses.
Hey, if we get a ton of snow, that would work out just fine. But if we don’t get storms, we could be in for boring, slow-death March with near seasonal temperatures. Get it? Slow-death March. 😉
Bottom line
If you’re convinced that winter is shot and want to sell your sled to get the jump on next winter. Or you want to get out of snowmobiling altogether because “winter ain’t what it used to be” then I’ve got a place for you called the ILsnow Trading Post Facebook Group. I don’t judge… Snowmobiling is optional and we all gotta do what we gotta do.
But for the rest of us, I think we have some hope…at least for ilsnow land. Unless March ends up robustly snowy, I think the lower elevation places are essentially done for the season with nothing left-over for a base.
One more thing
If you’re going to be around this weekend be sure to hit up the Indian Lake Snowarriors Baked Potato Night at the American Legion Hall from 5pm-7pm Friday, February 23rd. For $8 a person, it’s a great deal with lots of delicious toppings! If you leave hungry, it will be your own fault…
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
This report is brought to you by Prospect Point Cottages on Blue Mountain Lake. If you are looking for a quiet and scenic winter getaway, this place is for you with fireplaces, free hot brunch and snowshoes provided. The wintry view of Blue Mountain from across the lake is nothing short of amazing with a fresh mantle of snow!
