Snowmobiling season starts after sundown, Sunday December 3rd which marks the conclusion of big game hunting season in Hamilton and northern Herkimer counties.
This would make Monday, December 4th the first official day of the new season. Will we be riding by then?
Right now, I don’t think so. Here is a forecast panel for the mean upper air pattern for the days leading up to opening day:
Pacific zonal flow underneath the Polar Vortex will flood much of North America with relatively mild air, which you can see here:
What about Snodeo Weekend?
The beautiful thing about weather is that almost anything can happen if you give it enough time. By Saturday, December 9th, PNA+ ridging is expected to develop as the North Atlantic Thumb ridge presses closer to Greenland. This causes amplification of the pattern and makes the jet stream dip into the eastern United States:
As a result, seasonably cold air overcomes much of the United States by Snodeo Weekend:
We could very well have a lake-effect snow event occurring around this time. As we all know, early December is sketchy when it comes to having ride-able snow. But a well timed lake-effect snow event can quickly bring Moose River Plains to life if you’re looking to get that first snowmobile ride in during Snodeo Weekend.
My job on November 27th is not to tell you how much snow we’ll have on the ground by Snodeo Weekend, but to guess on whether we have a shot of snowmobiling by then. Based on the above, I think we’ve got a shot at it but it would have to come just in time.
Beyond?
There are no guarantees for 2 weeks away, but the forecast 5-day mean weather pattern through December 12th looks pretty favorable for cold and more lake-effect snows:
Of course, we don’t know whether that means we’ll get a big snow. But I like to take my chances with cold, rather than mild.
Keep Updated!
I will tend to post about long range weather patterns on the main website. For more time-sensitive storm updates and random things that pop up in my head at 3am, I’ll post on the Facebook page which is found here: www.facebook.com/ilsnowcom
Make sure that you:
- Click the Like Button (if you haven’t already)
- Under Following, set to “See First” in your news feed & set notifications “On”
This will give you a fighting chance of being notified of my updates on Facebook.
That’s it for now!
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
This report is brought to you by Progressive Motorsports, celebrating their 25th year. They live, eat and breathe snowmobiling. Stop in today and see for yourself! Be sure to tell Karen that Darrin @ ilsnow.com sent ya.
