Let’s get the trail conditions of the way: They’re awful! If you want to slither around on the crust and pick your way through frozen dirt with a fan-cooled beater snowmobile the next couple of days, have at it. You might find decent riding if you can worm your way to the back side of Perkins Clearing…
Fun contest!
Click on this link and vote for “Nature’s Playground” for the National Geographic 2016 Student Photo Contest.
Look for this picture, which was shot in Indian Lake!
If you’re not riding this week, you might as well place your vote and share this contest with others to get some attention for ilsnow land. 🙂
What happened to Winter?
The “commercial” snowmobiling season from Christmas through Presidents’ Week has been a disaster. There is no other way to say it. Despite the strong PDO+ signature in the Northern Pacific and the rapid spread of Siberian snow cover spread in October, El Nino had other ideas:
Notice how the El Nino maintained its intensity throughout the winter, instead of the steady weakening that was portrayed by the CFSv2 earlier this winter:
With El Nino remaining very strong and the Siberian Express loaded for bear, this winter became a weird amalgam of prolonged mild spells and short brutal cold waves during the heart of winter.
My prediction for a robust second half of the winter after a warm December and early January was premised on the forecast steady weakening of El Nino over the course of the winter, which clearly didn’t happen.
Based on the history of this winter, I don’t expect the story to change for March. Could we get lucky with a significant snow event or perhaps even two? Maybe, but I don’t foresee this March becoming the lion of March 1993, 1994, 2001 or 2014 with near relentless cold and/or huge snow.
A continuation of this disjointed weather through March would be more bad news for snowmobilers, but also bad news for people who want a sudden death to the cold season.
For the Upcoming Week:
The mid-week storm seems pretty cut and dry: a shot of snow early Wednesday, followed by rain and warm up. With a swift flow over Canada and no blocking over the maritimes, the pathway for the mid-week storm will be to our west, despite decent PNA+ riding over western North America:
I wouldn’t be surprised if temperatures take a run at 50*F on Thursday for ilsnow land and bring us one step closer to elimination.
But Old Man Winter wouldn’t be finished just yet…
This weekend should bring a shot of brutal cold for Sunday as the Polar Vortex (PV) dives into southeastern Canada, which would be similar to what happened on February 13th, but probably not quite as cold:
Of course, the brutal cold would quickly moderate next week. But the high latitude blocking over Northern Canada may allow seasonable cold to have decent staying power. Can we capitalize on this blocking pattern to score a decent snow event here? Don’t know yet…
Hey, this winter has been a tomato can. But I’m going to power through strong to the bitter end, like always!
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
