It’s looking bleak out there…
I’m starting to feel a bit like George Custer surrounded by the Indians at Little Big Horn.
Well, I’m glad I got out there last Thursday. The conditions did hold up into Saturday. But the scene took a definite turn for the worse on Sunday as temperatures shot into the 40s. There isn’t much margin when we have little snow.
We didn’t get much rain Sunday night or Monday, but the wind has really eaten away at the snow pack. I measured around a half-foot of snow “in the woods” Monday afternoon, but I can tell you the exposed spots are much thinner. The remaining pack is ripe, so Wednesday’s rain and warmth will bring us to the edge of oblivion, at least for the Indian Lake village trails.
Weekend Outlook:
Colder weather will return later in the week, but there probably WON’T be a significant lake-effect snow to bring things back to life for the western Adirondacks before the weekend. A strong clipper moving through Quebec Saturday night could MAYBE produce enough snow to bring Moose River Plains and Perkins Clearing back to life a bit for Sunday.
Next Week:
If Ole Man Winter Custer is going to make his last stand, I think it needs to start next week with the EURO ensembles showing a dream scenario for us around February 9th:
Massive warming will be occuring in western North America under PNA+/EPO- with a powerhouse trough simultaneously digging into the eastern United States in good alignment with the Polar Vortex (PV).
If this clicks for us with a big snowstorm, it may be the Hail Mary that saves February and salvages something for the second half of winter.
If we can’t get a big snow out of such a seemingly good set-up, I don’t know if it ever happens for us. Heading into Presidents’ Week with nothing to show for it could be the death knell for this snowmobiling season.
With this being a week away, it’s far from money in the bank. Individual models range from a miss, to a major snowstorm, to a storm that cuts too far inland and gives us rain. But at least we have an opportunity for something big to happen for us.
I’m not counting on March to bail us out if February come up empty. If winter is going to make a stand for the second half, it’s gotta start soon!
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
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