After the heart-wrenching December that averaged 12-14 degrees above normal, January has achieved a consistent (if not extreme cold) with only one truly brutal thaw day on January 10th with 44*F and an inch of rain. As a whole, January’s high temperatures have averaged in the middle 20s with lows averaging in the single digits here in Indian Lake, with several sub-zero mornings.
This in itself has been a remarkable turnaround from December, but the lack of snow continues to plague us. We have missed several opportunities with weak coastal storms moving out to sea throughout January.
Then we missed out on the big one:
The straight-line distance between Central Park, New York and Indian Lake is 212 miles. On a planetary scale, that’s a very close miss. If the storm track would have been 3 clicks of latitude further north, ilsnow land could have been buried under 2 feet of snow instead of New York City. In a winter that’s spiraling into a lost cause, that “slim miss” will haunt us for a long time.
It was especially frustrating in the light of how the pattern set-up would eventually lead to a big storm during the later part of January.
Looking back further, this snow drought actually spans back March 2015:
March 2015: 8.4 inches (normal 22.4″)
April 2015: 1.9 inches (normal 6.4″)
October 2015: 0.2 inches (normal 1.4″)
November 2015: 1.7 inches (normal 8.9″)
December 2015: 7.3 inches (normal 23.7″)
January 2016: 16.6 inches (normal 26.4″)
Yes, there are a few days left to January. But I don’t foresee a significant snowfall to end the month. We’re running an incredible 53 inch snowfall deficit since the end of February 2015.
Is Winter Screwed?
In one sense, yes! Nearly half of the snowmobile riding season is down the drain with little to show for it beside a few impressive lake-effect snow events for the western Adirondacks and Tug Hill.
The last three winters turned out solid, with February being the “money month” for snow:
February 2013: 27.1 inches
February 2014: 29.2 inches
February 2015: 29.8 inches
Those three winters also had significant time chunks in December and/or January in which it appeared that winter was spiraling into the abyss. But this year has been particularly scary.
Can February bail us out this time?
Short term
A parade of weak systems will deposit minor snows for the Adirondacks into the last weekend of January. Then it gets ugly with a major storm blowing up to our west and pumping temperatures well into the 40s, perhaps hitting 50*F on Wednesday, February 3rd.
With the Arctic Oscillating spiking into positive territory after its mid-January dive, I see no reason to argue against the warm surge:
Yeah, it’s ugly for sure. We’ll probably get a brutal rain and be left with a thin crust when the remnant snowpack freezes over.
But the “10-15 day warm-up” chatter I’ve heard on social media is a crock of baloney. In the next panel, you’ll see light stratopheric winds across Canada and warming over the North Pole, which is a near slam-dunk cold setup:
And sure enough, after next Wednesday’s hurt, it should get cold in a hurry:
EPO- (negative East Pacific Oscillation) is often manifested in strong high pressure over Alaska, which often creates a very cold cross Polar flow in conjunction with the Polar Vortex.
Here is what EPO- likes to do in February:
Longer term:
The composite of strong El Nino winters shows a bias for colder than normal temperatures and near normal precipitation for February. So there is a decent chance the cold would have staying power and give us more opportunities for snow than we’ve had thus far this winter:
Bottom line:
The cold pattern we saw though the majority of January appears to be reloading for February. As we saw in January, cold patterns don’t guarantee that we’ll get big snows. But there should be several opportunities for significant snows in February. That’s all we can ask for at this point.
My outlook for a strong second half of the winter after a weak first half is about to be put to the most severe test. January was a step in right direction. We’ll see if February becomes our promised land. The law of averages need to start balancing out soon!
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
