Finally! We have gotten our first bona-fide arctic blast of the season with temperatures falling to zero at the ilsnow storm center this morning. Lakes are starting to crust over with ice. Temperatures will head well below zero tonight, which is another step in the right direction.
At present, snow cover ranges from around 6 inches at Indian Lake to a foot-plus in parts of the western Adirondacks.
Last weekend:
People were riding Perkins Clearing and Moose River Plains Saturday and Sunday.
You can see this shot from Perkins Clearing on Sunday, which wasn’t bad for the low snow conditions:
Midweek Outlook:
No snow is expected this week and high temperatures are expected to climb into the 30s later this week. But, cold temperatures early in the week and almost no traffic will allow Perkins Clearing and Moose River Plains to firm up.
For Perkins Clearing, your best bet is to park at Mason Lake and hit Perkins Clearing Road from the north end.
The fallen trees within a mile of Silver Run in Moose River Plains were partially cleared on Saturday so snowmobiles could get through. The Town of Indian Lake will probably clean up the rest of the mess this week.
The narrow woods trails around Indian Lake and Speculator remain rough and hazardous. It will take much more than a couple of cold days to undo the harm caused by a December that was 12-14 degrees above normal.
Extended Outlook:
After this week, the pattern will turn active again. The models are having a tough time with the details, but it looks like there will be two weather systems.
System 1:
A weak system moving through the Great Lakes should bring some kind of wet snow or sloppy mixture on Saturday. But notice that massive cold blob lurking in south-central Canada.
System 2:
The more important system begins to develop over the Carolinas on Sunday. The models vary as to the track. Some take the storm well inland, which would almost surely mean rain. Others depict a coastal track, which would favor snow for the Adirondacks. But the lower elevations could struggle with mixed precipitation with only marginal cold available for this storm.
The bulk of this event would appear to be Sunday night into Monday morning. I don’t want to get into much detail because of the uncertainty, but there is at least the potential for a significant snow event if the storm develops rapidly and takes a coastal route.
After that:
Regardless of what Sunday night’s event does, the cold Arctic hammer comes rushing in for next week with the possibility of heavy lake effect snows for the western Adirondacks.
This cold will have staying power with the Polar Vortex becoming parked over eastern Canada and a strong high pressure regime in the Arctic, reflected by the AO-/NAO- regime:
I can’t say right now whether we’ll cash in the opportunity presented by the Sunday night/Monday event. But at least we’re in a pattern where something can happen for us, something that seemed so far out of reach in late December.
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
