Now that half of December is down the drain and we don’t have a stitch of snow on the ground, let’s tackle the big question: Is there ANY hope for a White Christmas?
At this point, I would say that a Brown Christmas is looking more like a certainty for this year. That’s no small thing because the statistical odds for a White Christmas in ilsnow land is over 90%:
The last Brown Christmas for Indian Lake? It was in 2006. I’ll have a bit more to say about that if you stick with me to the end of this article. 😉
Lake-effect snow next weekend?
Most of the “model-ology” is showing a storm moving through Quebec next weekend, dragging down a cold shot around December 19th:
I certainly don’t want to overplay this, but there may be enough cold and moisture for a decent short duration lake-effect snow response.
After that?
True to the script written thus far, next weekend’s cold would be short-lived and overwhelmed by a mild weather response.
In the week leading up to Christmas, the cold shot is long gone and yet another storm is loading up in the western United States around December 22nd under a major PNA- pattern:
We also see the strong NAO+ and WPO+ patterns that have been KILLING us with the fire hose Pacific Jet. Given this set-up, I would say that a Brown Christmas is pretty much in the bag for us.
Any hope after Christmas?
Umm…not really! The GEFS ensembles are clearly identifying a strong AO+/NAO+/PNA- configuration for the end of December:
You don’t have to take my word for it, let’s take a look at what AO+/NAO+/PNA- do for us in December:
This strongly favors warmth over the eastern United States. I think you can pretty much flush December down the toilet and perhaps the first half of January.
You can find these teleconnection analogues at: http://madusweather.com/teleconnections/
2006?
I bring us back to 2006 because here is what the pattern looked like on Christmas Day:
This looks shockingly like the prevailing pattern we’ve had so far in December with the Alaskan Vortex, Polar Vortex and strong WPO+ induced Pacific jet keeping the cold air locked away from us.
Winter seemed like a totally lost cause. But we know what happened later that winter: The Valentine’s Day Blizzard and heavy snow that continued through March into April.
No, I’m not predicting a repeat of that. But I am saying that a major reversal could happen later this winter if there are dominoes in place to change the pattern.
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
