We didn’t have snow on the ground for Thanksgiving and some people think winter is dead before it started.
The problem with that line of thinking? How much snow we get in November has little consequence in regards to how the winter turns out.
To get the true scope of what’s going on, we must step back and look at the big picture:
Yes, we are lacking for snow across the north-central United States into southeastern Canada. But the overall spread of snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere is well ahead of climatology, judging by the large expanses of positive snow cover anomalies shown in purple.
In other words, winter appears to be shooting strong out of the gate…but just not here yet.
What’s going bad for us?
The weather pattern that I’m expecting for the heart of winter hasn’t set up yet. The ensemble means for the next 6-10 day period aren’t showing much promise:
The Polar Vortex is forecast to be located well north of the Arctic Circle. The strong “Alaskan Assassin” Vortex is the kiss of death if you want persistent cold and snow around here.
The expected outcome of this pattern is highly predictable: The truly cold will be locked up in the Arctic for a while!
What about the early December event?
On November 23rd, I had posted about the possibility of a snow event by early December with a developing split flow weather pattern:
It appears this storm will occur on Tuesday. But unfortunately, with no high-latitude blocking and the warm western Atlantic, the storm will cut a path west of us and bring a mixture of freezing rain and sleet, changing to rain:
This may be a recurring problem through December until the cold deepens enough to suppress the storm track south and east.
When will this change?
It’s tough to say whether the change occur toward the end of December or early to mid-January. Based on the factors I outlined on my Winter 2015-16 Outlook, I would say that mid-January through February should be much stronger in regards to cold and snow than what we’ll see for the next 30-45 days.
Here’s a prediction I can make with complete confidence: You’ll probably hear a hundred-and-one predictions for “massive pattern change” on social media over the next several weeks that keep pushing the expected cold back another week until it actually happens. Falling for that will only leave you frustrated! The dominoes need to fall before the game can change.
Dr. Judah Cohen has issued his December-January-February temperature outlook, which shows near-normal temperatures for ilsnow land this winter:
I think this is a reasonable forecast based on a blend of El Niño, warm PDO+ and October Eurasian snow cover spread. Even if “near-normal” temperature outlook doesn’t sound impressive, it’s much colder than NOAA’s outlook. And the mild early winter may be counterbalanced by a brutally cold mid-to-late winter.
Judah Cohen is a true pioneer in his field: You can read here to find why I put a lot of stock in his work.
Is there any hope for a White Snodeo?
Well, the ECMWF seems persistent on sending shortwave energy (X) through the Great Lakes which could trigger a precipitation event around Tuesday, December 8th:
I’ll be the first to admit this is a long shot, like Apollo Creed picking Rocky Balboa out of a journeyman club fighters directory. Not much cold air around and the short wave needs a lot of help. But hey, a long shot is better than no shot!
Bottom line?
The lack of snow in November and the prospect of a snow-lean December hasn’t changed my winter outlook because there haven’t been any real surprises yet.
Assuming that El Niño starts to weaken over the next 30-45 days, I still think the pieces are in place for a hard-hitting second half of the winter.
Patience, grasshopper!
For the ilsnow nation,
Darrin
