The first week of March was amazingly cold with temperatures averaging greater than 15 degrees below normal! Not surprisingly, the Arctic air mass was very dry with little opportunity for significant snow. With the Polar Vortex swirling in eastern Canada, all of the storms were shunted well to our south.
That cold snap is over, with the Polar Vortex starting to retreat. Storms will have an opportunity to make a run at us again.
Wednesday/Thursday Opportunity:
A strong shortwave moving across the northern United States could spawn a significant snow event for us in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame:
If a strong storm does develop, there wouldn’t be anything blocking it from making a serious run at us. This potential storm is still several days away, so it’s not carved on stone tablets yet. But this is the most promising prospect I’ve seen in a month. I think it has a shot.
After Thursday?
If this storm clicks for us, we would be in great shape for next weekend and into following week. The huge PNA+ ridge over the western United States will force-feed the Arctic cold over the eastern United States for much of the time period March 13th-18th:
Looking further ahead:
The strong PNA+ pattern should be routed out during the March 18th-23th time frame. With the strong Polar Vortex over Davis Straits, temperatures will probably average close to normal. By March 18th-23th, the normal high temperature at Indian Lake is near 40*F. The heart of ilsnow land should hold on to the snow, but the lower elevations around the periphery of the Adirondacks will start to lose their snow quickly:
The Arctic Oscillation is forecast to spike upward in mid March, which could mean that we’ll be starting that inevitable slide into diehard season after the Spring Equinox:
That’s not to say we’d be done with winter weather. But I do think there should be a significant thaw and a rain event in late March before the next bout of cold and snowy weather.
So, get out there every chance you can get for next couple of weeks! If we can bag that storm Wednesday/Thursday we’d have a really good close to Winter 2013-14 before we embark on its slow and painful death.
Darrin @ ilsnow.com
