2/2/14 Update: Indian Lake ended up with 4 inches of dense snow last night. This should help tremendously! 🙂
January 2014 was the ultimate Jekyll & Hyde month. Take a look at how the temperature bounced up and down like lottery ping pong balls at the Indian Lake Dam:
Take a look at the impressive cold snap to end January. There is nothing “extreme” here. But that’s a very impressive block of persistent cold.
January 2014’s mean temperature of 11.2*F was actually 2.9*F below climatology. You’d be very surprised to know that we picked up 23.0″ of snowfall, which was only 4.0″ below climatology. Of course, the warm-ups and rains between January 5th and 16th severely sabotaged the snow pack last month.
What’s next?
The hype machine is already cranking up for February with rumors of parades of storms. I’d like to have at least a couple of good storms under our belt for February before declaring that winter is back on the fast track.
Having said that, I do see a couple of opportunities for significant snowfall during the next 7-10 days. Today’s EURO shows a pretty good snow opportunity for Wednesday:
The Polar Vortex has retreated toward the Arctic Circle and the PNA+ pattern has completely broken down. That means the brutal cold pattern that dominated the final third of January has broken down as well. This afternoon’s 33*F feels downright balmy! But the strong Canadian Maritime Vortex should cause Wednesday’s potential storm to make a jump to the coast, rather than cut up through the Great Lakes. This would favor S*N*O*W!
The possible snow event is 4 days away, so you know I’m not going to make specific snowfall predictions yet. But I do think this is a solid opportunity. The southern jet stream has been very active, so I think having the severe cold pattern break down will allow these storms to start making a run at us. A large cold storm getting carved over the northwestern United States could spawn another good snow opportunity for us for next weekend as well.
Looking ahead:
Usually a large Gulf of Alaska storm is big trouble for us, as it floods the United States with mild Pacific air:
But with a piece of the Polar Vortex over Hudson’s Bay, our air masses will originate from Canada. It should be the seasonally cold air that keeps winter around at a more tolerable temperature, rather than the mind-numbing Siberian blasts we’ve had lately.
Bottom line:
Christmas, New Year’s Day and Martin Luther King weekend were flushed down the toilet. But I do see hope for Valentine’s Day and President’s Week as the weather tries to establish a more even keel. I would love to see record-smashing snows for the next two to three months and ride well into April, like we did in 2007. But at this point, I’d be happy to capitalize on our next couple of snow opportunities and avoid thaws for next 2-3 weeks.
As always, we’ll see what happens!
Darrin @ ilsnow.com
