The relative lack of snow for the past three weeks has been very discouraging. There won’t be any significant thaws for at least the next week to 10 days, but I think the pattern will be hostile to the development of a widespread significant snow event for the Adirondacks.
Short term:
If you want it cold around here, you’d be hard pressed to chalk up a better set-up than what we’ll see over the next week.
Cross-polar Siberian Express will be pile-driven in the the eastern United States between the extremely high amplitude western North American ridge (PNA+) and the tremendously strong Polar Vortex over Quebec:
Unfortunately, this is also a lousy pattern for widespread significant snows because the super strong Polar Vortex will force coastal storms to pass out to sea well to our south. Snowfall over the next week or so be restricted to Canadian clipper type systems and associated lake effect snows left in their wake.
Looking ahead:
The extreme cold pattern will break down by early February as the Polar Vortex weakens somewhat and retreats northward. The extreme PNA+ will be replaced by a zonal Pacific flow:
As long as the Polar Vortex doesn’t retrograde back toward Alaska, this doesn’t necessarily scream THAW! In fact, this could make it easier for a significant snow maker to make a run at us. The ECWMF ensembles are hinting toward the possibility of a snow event somewhere around February 4th, but I’m not ready to sink my teeth into that yet.
Rest of the Winter?
The first half of the winter has been a bumpy road, for sure! But there are signs of hope heading into the second half. I think the near record October spread of Eurasian snow cover and the explosive November spread of North American snow cover still means something. We’ve seen how cold it can get. Here is a noteworthy trend for the Arctic Oscillation:
If you smooth out the peaks and valleys, you can see a clear downward trend to the Arctic Oscillation. A persistent negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation indicates high pressure near the North Pole which displaces the jet stream southward into the United States. This usually favors cold weather and opportunities for significant snows.
The North Atlantic Oscillation hasn’t been quite as friendly though, as the trend has been firmly neutral to at times positive:
There is still time for the North Atlantic Oscillation to tank into negative territory at some point in February or March, but there isn’t any real indication of that happening yet.
Bottom line is that we still have opportunity to salvage a decent winter, but losing much of January was a big blow. There is still room for a late blooming winter, especially in light of all of the bitter cold weather we’ve seen thrown around the central and eastern United States for the past few months, since November.
Keep the faith. There’s nothing better to do right now…
Darrin @ ilsnow.com
