UPDATE 1/15/14: The prospects of a significant snowfall on Saturday continue to dwindle to the point where I don’t think it has a realistic chance of happening…
Trail Report 1/14/14: This shot of downtown Indian Lake just about tells the story here. We are at the end of skid row, the bottom of the barrel.
As bleak as it looks, there is actually 3-6+ inches of snow in the woods with a half-way decent icy base leftover on the trails. However, the low-lying areas are swamped and will require some time to drain. There is barely enough snow left for the local vultures to pick at the bones. Don’t bother traveling from any distance to snowmobile what we got here.
The recent warmth and rain has caused Indian Lake to rise by feet, which has compromised the shore ice. Right now, any lake would have to be especially considered at your own risk.
Looking outside right now, you would have never guessed:
- A wonderfully White Thanksgiving
- The best snow conditions for Snodeo weekend in years
- Major lake effect snows for the western Adirondacks
- Two widespread significant snow events for ilsnow land
- November, December and the first half of January collectively have averaged BELOW NORMAL for temperature
- Several Arctic blasts with mind-numbing to occasionally dangerous cold
- My earliest ride to Salisbury, ever!
Unfortunately, this winter has been truly bi-polar in the truest sense of the word. We’ve literally had to catch the snow whenever we got it. I’ve saved a lot of money on snowmobiling so far this winter. But I want to RIDE! Besides, if I really want to save money that bad, I’d just sell my sled then maybe move to Texas or Florida to escape the state income tax. 😉
MIDWEEK OUTLOOK:
Umm…NO! Just look at that picture above.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK:
It will certainly get much colder. But any hope of riding this weekend hinges on Saturday’s potential snow event which is certainly nothing to hang your hat on right now with the horrible conditions we have right now. The shortwave energy for Satruday’s event was moving across Alaska this morning:
There will be a good west coast ridge (PNA+) and eastern United States trough well established by the end of the week. If that Alaskan shortwave crashes southward into the United States like a bull in a China shop, we’d probably be in business for a good snow storm here. If the shortwave fizzles out whilst crossing the Great Lakes, we’d get little snow. Simple as that, but it’s at least a few days away so I can’t rule anything out yet.
NEXT WEEK:
Next week could be very cold with this classic PNA+ pattern:
Lake effect snows would be a good bet in this pattern with such a strong Polar Vortex over eastern Canada. We could get lucky with a significant snow event as well. ANYTHING would be better than what’s going on now. 🙂
LOOKING AHEAD:
About a third of the snowmobiling season is in the books with a frustrating series of promises washed away by rains. Unfortunately, I don’t think we have seen the end of this for the time being. Here’s the North Atlantic Oscillation chart dating back to last autumn:
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was steeply negative at times late September through middle October. But since then, the NAO has been mostly bouncing around neutral and occasionally spiking well into positive territory. The red lines indicate GFS ensembles forecasting neutral to positive NAO through the end of January. The recent history doesn’t bode well for us in the short term. So far, any forecast (including mine) for a prevailing NAO- pattern has been a bust this winter.
The enormous pool of warm water over the northeastern Pacific Ocean is large, in charge, and going nowhere! This strongly favors a PNA+ pattern, which in turn will continue to result in strong Arctic surges over the eastern United States:
EL NINO?
Until the Polar Vortex took him off the hook, poor El Nino was Public Enemy Number 1. As you can see here, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral and most models ensembles cluster toward neutral ENSO for the remainder of the winter. In other words, don’t blame El Nino:
BOTTOM LINE:
It is what it is until it ain’t no more! There is plenty of winter left in the tank and still time for the weather to establish a more even keel that will keep the snow around longer. But honestly I can’t tell you when, or even if, that will happen. Until this winter proves otherwise, you’ll need to grab the snow whenever we get it.
Darrin @ ilsnow.com
