Based on the picture I put up from one of my kids, I think the answer is NO! Will there be a big snowstorm by the end of March? I can’t tell you for sure, but there is pretty strong evidence for the second half of March to be significantly colder than normal on the whole.
There is still 8-16 inches of remnant snow pack “in the woods” around Indian Lake and Speculator with upwards of 16-24+ inches in the “snow bowls” west of Route 30. If it’s going to be cold, I would like some fresh snow to play in before winter gives up the ghost!
Let’s take a look at a couple of the major oscillation patterns:
You can see the GFS ensembles show a significant nose-dive for the Arctic Oscillation prior to the Spring equinox:
Most of the ensembles are showing a steeply negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO-) as well:
ECWMF ensembles are showing a powerhouse blocking high over the Davis Straits around March 21st:
Think of that blocking high as a huge mound of relatively warm air. The cold air is diverted southward, underneath the mound of warm air into southern Canada and the northeastern United States.
Keep in mind that the normal high temperature for Indian Lake next week is around 40*F. If an air mass prevents the temperature from reaching above 32*F or keeps the temperatures in the 20s all afternoon, that’s significantly cold air for this time of year. You also need to remember that during the third week of March last year, temperatures were reaching into the 60s and 70s and we set all time daily record highs for March 21st (72*F) and 22nd (75*F). This pattern is a dramatic reversal from last year!
OK it’s going to be cold, but will we get a big snow?
Well, there may be a decent storm headed our way by Tuesday. With marginally cold air in place at the start of the storm, there is no guarantee that all of it will be snow. In this kind of set-up, the south/central and eastern Adirondacks may do pretty well. The western and north/western Adirondacks may get ripped off due to compressional downslope heating:
If this set-up holds true, places like Speculator, Indian Lake and North Creek could get over 6 inches of snow from Tuesday’s event. That’s a very preliminary outlook and not a forecast to be taken seriously, YET. If the actual profile turns out somewhat warmer than shown here, nobody will get much snow from this.
After this, we may get one more shot at a decent snow before the end of March. I’m not sure it will be anything major. But as we all know, anything can happen here!
