I’ve got a lot to show you, so here it goes!
The Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA) are forecast to be favorable for cold, snowy weather around here into early March. You could say that’s the Triple Crown. This configuration certainly did NOT appear last winter:
This will probably lead us into serious fun and games over the next week or two, at least.
First up: This weekend!
The “Euro” is showing a dual storm structure, with the primary (X1) and coastal (X2) by Sunday morning.
This is faintly similar to “Nemo” from a couple of weeks ago, meaning that southern/eastern New England is likely to get socked with a major Nor’easter while the Adirondacks get lesser amounts. At this time, I think much of the Adirondacks could get 6 inches or more of snow over the weekend, if the primary storm holds together well. If not, we’ll get stiffed because the coastal storm probably won’t have the size to throw decent snow back here.
After that?
In my opinion, the REAL fun could happen by early March. I posted this “Euro” panel on ilsnow Facebook yesterday:
This is absolutely crazy, but it’s plausible due to the large scale NAO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern. We’ve got an extreme manifestation of the PNA+ with the massive western United States ridge and a storm that buries itself underneath an eastern Canadian block. Of course, the demons are always in the details. Nothing is a sure thing over a week away, but the pattern appears “pregnant” for a major to perhaps historic snow event somewhere over the northeastern United States by early March.
I’ve essentially matched my snowfall total from last winter: with the back 9 of February, March and April to go AND a hemispheric pattern is nearly the reverse of what it was last winter. Eventually, we’ll be leaving the Ghost of Winter 2011-12 in the dust.
