There were a number of unkind comments directed towards “weathermen” in regards to Friday’s storm. They weren’t directed specifically at me. But I’m in a weird position of defending myself, even when I nailed this one. Let’s replay the sequence:
Saturday, Feb 2: This was my first mention of the possible storm. At the time, ECWMF had the general idea of a Pacific jet stream shortwave that could bring a decent snow to the Adirondacks. However, the models had not latched onto the subtropical jet stream shortwave that would become the crippling Nor’easter known as Nemo.
Tuesday, Feb 5: I got into further detail about the upcoming storm and explained why the pattern did NOT support a blockbuster snowstorm for the Adirondacks.
Wednesday, Feb 6: I really got into it with the details. This was going to be a tale of two storms:
1. The coastal storm that would bury southern and eastern New England under multiple feet of snow.
2. The storm moving in from the west which would be OUR snow event.
When the 12Z Wednesday NAM was painting 20-24 inches throughout the Adirondacks from the upcoming storm, I dismissed that as complete nonsense because it made absolutely no sense meteorologically. In fact, I had a teleconference with Rich @ Upstatesnow.com that night to compare notes. We agreed that most of upstate New York, including ilsnow land, would probably get a general 6-12 inch snow fall. Some spots would pick up more, some spots less.
My final call on Thursday afternoon before the storm began was for 6-12 inches, and that was EXACTLY what happened.
Look at the snowfall reports:
Indian Lake: 7.5-8.5 inches
Speculator: 8-10 inches
Long Lake: 10 inches
Inlet: 12 inches
Some places in the western Adirondacks and the higher mountains throughout the Adirondacks got more than a foot. Go back to my February 6th post and check it out: I was expecting a 6 inch to perhaps a foot plus snow event.
As the event was unfolding on Friday, people thought the storm was misfiring even though the snow was slowly, but surely, piling up. Unfortunately, I think the mass media made people misapply the hype and assume this storm would crush the Adirondacks. Somehow, that 6-12+ inch forecast was going to be conservative in light of the historical Nor’easter that would pound New England. I can’t recall the last time that so many people were disappointed in getting 8,9 or 10 inches of snow. Bottom line is that the storm didn’t live up to the inflated expectations, but it lived “down” to mine.
I’ve had my share of busts over the years, but this wasn’t one of them. All I can do is get it right often enough to help.
Darrin @ ilsnow.com
