Any skepticism I had about significant snowfall from the upcoming storm has been quelled by radar and model trends, all pointing UP for us!
Precipitation is starting to blossom with the northern Pacific jet shortwave:
ECMWF is showing Pacific shortwave (X1: primary storm) retaining its strength into Friday, with the subtropical shortwave (X2: secondary storm) rounding the base of the trough:
The important thing to notice by Friday morning, the primary storm is still the dominant storm. There was some fear that the coastal storm development would rob moisture and lift from the Adirondacks, leaving us with just a little snow. In this case, the primary storm should be strong enough to do the dirty work for us.
Look at the Meso-NAM simulated radar summary for Friday Morning:
You can see the very nice comma-shaped complex over southern Ontario Friday morning, indicative of strong energy and moisture lift. Precipitation from the secondary storm would be nowhere near us, but the primary storm should have more than enough juice to get the job done as it moves through New York state on Friday.
The primary and secondary storms phase into an absolute beast by early Saturday: WOW!
Much of southern and eastern New England should end up measuring snow by MULTIPLES OF FEET! The ECWMF (Euro) rarely blows the forecast on major to historical nor’easters within 2-3 days. This solution enjoys wonderful cross model support as well.
Back in the North Country, the storm won’t be THAT robust. But I have high confidence for at least 6 inches to perhaps a foot-plus with this one. That would be AWESOME shot in the arm for snowmobiling and breathe winter back to life around here. 🙂
Do the snow dance!!
