There is some buzz about the potential end of week snow event. So lets get down to it!
Here is the 12Z Euro’s sequence of events:
If all goes according to this plan, there will be a significant coastal storm pounding New England Friday into Saturday. The fast Pacific jet stream is pushing the storm along, so I don’t think we’ll be getting anywhere near the brunt of this storm. However, most of the models are presently indicating that the storm could generate enough juice to produce snow 6 inches or more over the central Adirondacks later Thursday night through Friday. I’m a bit skeptical about that because the disturbance generating the storm is weak right now as seen on the ECMWF forecast panel for Wednesday AM and the present radar panel:
We’ll have to see how this storm strengthens on its trek across the northern United States Wednesday night into Thursday to see whether this thing is the Real McCoy or just a figment of the model’s imagination.
Stepping back and looking at the big picture, the NAO+/AO+ configuration demonstrates why the coastal storm won’t come together in time to really wallop us:
There is NO high latitude blocking to slow the coastal storm as it develops. The strong Pacific jet underneath the elongated polar vortex just shoves the storm right along. If the Pacific jet becomes too strong, that could actually shear apart the storm and that’s what I’m worried about.
As always, we’ll see what happens. Hopefully it will be enough snow to help our cause for the weekend! 🙂
Darrin @ ilsnow.com
