After our big snow blitz to end December, we’ve been treated to some great early January riding. Now, the dreaded January Thaw is around the corner. Everyone is wondering how bad the Thaw will be and whether winter is toast.
January Thaw:
At the start of the week, the Thaw won’t be that strong yet. The Polar Vortex (PV) will be very strong, but way up north. That will trap the coldest air way up in the Canadian Arctic for at least the next week. But the jet stream flow on Tuesday will be zonal (from east to west), which will keep the really warm air to our south into the middle of the week:
As long as temperatures are able to fall below 32*F at night and we don’t get big rain, damage will be minimal for most of the week in the heart of the Adirondacks. But our luck will end later this week and especially by the weekend as a deep southwesterly flow develops. IF this panel is correct, Sunday could punch into the 50s, even in the heart of the Adirondacks:
After that?
I don’t believe winter is toast. After a spike to NAO+/AO+ this week. Nearly all of the model ensembles show a plunge back to NAO-/AO- by mid-January. The ECMWF ensembles are showing an interesting and active weather set-up for mid January:
The northeastern United States may become the battleground between the Canadian Polar Vortex and the leftover warmth over the southeastern United States. The trough in the southwestern United States could become an active source for storms that make a run into the battle zone. Don’t get me wrong: This is not a tremendously cold pattern for the eastern United States because most of the bitter cold will be trapped under the Polar Vortex. But you only need “cold enough” for snow. Further down the line, there is some talk about severe cold over the second half of January. I’m not sold yet as to whether that will actually happen. But there is enough evidence to suggest that winter almost certainly isn’t done yet.
Keep the faith! We’re already well ahead of last winter. 🙂
