If you learn ONE lesson from this past week, don’t bother with those sexy looking weather apps that tell you Indian Lake is going to get 19.4 inches of snow a week from now. They’re USELESS, U-S-E-L-E-S-S. Then I get blamed for a bad forecast that I had nothing to do with.
The computer models are simply not able to accurately determine snowfall totals much more than 24-48 hours away from a potential snow event. If you look at 5 different computer models, you’ll usually get 5 different ideas for events several days away. If they were completely accurate, you would expect to see all 5 models show the same thing and be correct every time. This is why I almost NEVER issue snowfall accumulation forecasts for events more than 2 days away, no matter how many people ask me. If the forecast is especially difficult, I might wait until 24 hours or less before posting specific snowfall forecasts.
My approach is to determine whether there are legitimate opportunities for snowfall, then fill in the details as the potential events gets closer. Sometimes we cash in on the snow, sometimes we don’t. That’s how it works.
First up: Tuesday!
A decent storm will be moving through on Tuesday. Unfortunately, it will be starting as rain Monday night. As the storm center slides by, colder air will initiate a changeover to snow. This afternoon’s meso-NAM is showing the changeover to snow in the central Adirondacks starting around 10am over the high mountains:
Rain changing to snow events make it difficult to pin down snow amounts more than a day away from the event. But there is a POTENTIAL for several inches of snow IF the changeover occurs during heavy precipitation. At this moment, I’m not sure what’s going to happen with this. Check back with me by Monday evening.
Friday and the Weekend!
As the next storm tracks probably tracks into the eastern Great Lakes, the Adirondacks will be on the warm side of the storm Friday morning. But the colder air is right on the doorstep. The approximate rain/snow line is shown by a red dashed line just west of Interstate 81:
By Saturday morning, ECMWF depicts a large swirling storm centered over New England. This would be a MAJOR lake effect and orographical snow bonanza for the northern and western Adirondacks:
As the storm gets trapped under the east Canadian block, the party would continue into Sunday:
If you’re scoping possible riding spots next weekend, definitely target Tug Hill and the western Adirondacks. For the Indian Lake area, this storm could put Moose River Plains in play. It’s a crap shoot for sure. Let’s hope it doesn’t come up “snake eyes!”
