I’ve got lots to talk about in a short amount of time.
Here’s the set-up by Sunday evening:
Normally, a storm cutting through Upper Michigan is just plain rain here. But the blocking high over eastern Canada changes the game, especially over the south/central and eastern Adirondacks where cold air damming holds on the longest. Snow could accumulate up to a few inches in places like Indian Lake, Speculator, North Creek into Sunday night before the changeover to mixed precipitation. Further north and west in places like Old Forge, Inlet and Tupper Lake, there will be much less snow due to compressional downslope heating and drying west of the Adirondack spine. I’ve seen a lot of these localized snow events in marginal conditions.
Moving onto Tuesday:
By Tuesday morning, the more significant storm should be winding up. The air is only marginally cold, with the approximate snow vs. mixed precipitation line (shown as dashed red line) over the St. Lawrence Valley. The developing storm will have to move UNDER the block instead of doing the typical track down the St.Lawrence Valley. This will cause colder air to bleed into the Adirondacks from southern Canada with a changeover to snow on Tuesday. You can see where the storm will end up by Wednesday morning. In fact, some of the forecast models are showing a vigorous snowstorm Tuesday night into Wednesday morning:
Despite the lack of truly Arctic air penetrating into the United States, this is a very active pattern that could yield significant snow before next weekend. That storm crashing through the southwestern United State on Wednesday could be our next opportunity for significant snowfall by Friday the 21st. WIN, LOSE or DRAW, this is going to be a fun week at the ilsnow.com storm center! Snowmobile riding before Christmas may not be a far-fetched concept this winter. 🙂
