Winter poked his head around here last week, but that seems like a distant memory now.
What’s going on?
This forecast panel for December 4th shows the problem that I have been talking about for the past week or so:
The powerful Bering Sea Omega Ridge and Gulf of Alaska Vortex couplet remains cemented in place. When strong storms continually crash into the Gulf of Alaska region, it becomes virtually impossible for Arctic cold to penetrate deeply into the eastern United States. This is also consistent with the negative phase of the Pacific/North American Oscillation (PNA-) that we have had for months. Remember that a PNA- pattern favors milder weather over the eastern United States:
So, Winter is stuck up north right now!
Is this going to change anytime soon?
I believe that tangible changes will begin to occur by mid-December with the breakdown of the Bering Sea Omega Ridge/Gulf of Alaska Vortex Legion of Doom:
Within 2 weeks, the evil Pacific regime should collapse and be replaced by slight ridging in the Gulf of Alaska! This will allow a piece of the Canadian Polar Vortex to slip southward toward Hudson’s Bay by default. That by itself should fire up lake effect snows by mid-December. Before we get lost in the excitement, this is NOT a hard-core winter set-up yet, due to the lack of amplified western United States ridging (PNA+) or a strong Greenland block.
What does this mean for the second half of December and into January?
With the NAO-/AO- pattern expected for the next couple of weeks and the collapse of the Gulf of Alaska Vortex. It will become colder with more opportunities for snow:
As long as the Northern Hemisphere retains a AO-/NAO- configuration much of the time for the next couple of months, good things SHOULD happen for us as the winter cold continues to build. The prevailing PNA- pattern will leave us vulnerable to warm-ups, but I think we’ll get a far better share of snow than we did last winter.
Remember, this is only the first week of December. If it’s still looking bleak by the New Year, then we’ve got some real problems.
