Last night’s ECMWF is painting an intriguing picture for November 28th/29th, which is one possible manifestation of the AO-/NAO- pattern I talked about yesterday:
The Canadian Polar vortex is dropping southward, possibly on its way to Hudson’s Bay. The Greenland Block is starting to show up as well. While this happens, you can see a strong trough moving through the eastern United States and another trough dropping into the central United States. This is very suggestive of a developing eastern United States snowstorm. Keep in mind this is almost 10 days away. We may OR may not get a snowstorm to end November. But the most important thing to take out of this post is the PATTERN! If the prevalent pattern this winter is AO-/NAO-, then we will have many more opportunities for significant snowfall than we did last winter.
The key to good long range forecasting is NOT trying to figure how much snow will fall in your backyard or favorite winter playground 10 days away. It’s all about identifying the major weather patterns, then filling in the details about specific events as they come.
