As per my weather outlook from last week, we will be waiting a while for our first significant snow of the season in the Adirondacks.
This ECMWF panels shows our problem, loud and clear! This configuration of the Polar Vortex (PV) displaced over far northern Canada combined with the Gulf of Alaska storm (X) teleconnects with mild and dry weather for the eastern United States, like death and taxes:
There is a real possibility that most of the Adirondacks will not see rain or snow for the next 7-10 days! That’s pretty remarkable weather for November, albeit in the wrong way for us.
When will the weather change?
The model ensembles are showing the flip to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO-) toward the end of the month. I’ll show the ECMWF’s idea here:
The forecast shift to NAO- has spawned talk about a possible nor’easter near the end of November. In my honest opinion, that’s putting the cart way before the horse! The weather pattern must change for real before we can even talk about meaningful snow events here.
