Snow cover is expanding over Canada much faster than it was last year:
I did a quick comparison for November 1st Canadian snow cover during the past 15 years. The only years with similar or greater snow cover by November 1st were: 2002, 2003 and 2006. Each of the following winters had a least one major snowstorm in the Adirondacks, defined as widespread 1-2 feet or greater:
Winter 2002-2003: Great from start to finish!
December 26, 2002 (heavy snowfall clipped southern Adirondacks)
January 3-4, 2003
April 3-5, 2003
Winter 2003-2004: Great start, but lackluster finish
December 6-7, 2003 (heavy snowfall clipped southern/eastern Adirondacks)
December 14-15, 2003
Winter 2006-2007: Painfully slow until February, but what a finish!
February 14, 2007 (Valentine’s Day Blizzard)
April 15-16, 2007
A great winter is not guaranteed, but aggressive Canadian snow cover spread by early November seems to be a VERY encouraging precursor for a big snow at some point during the winter.
You can keep watch of the Canadian and USA snow cover at this link!
So? When will the snow cover get HERE?
ECWMF is showing an interesting scenario for later next week with some cross model support. If correct, this setup is often a precursor for significant east coast storm development:
The North Atlantic Oscillation has been in its negative phase (NAO-) for over two weeks, but is forecast to relax early November. Sometimes, relaxation of a prolonged NAO- is a precursor to significant east coast storm development as well. That does not guarantee a storm, but it’s a sign that bears watching when the players are marching onto the field:
I can’t tell you whether the big storm scenario will actually pan out from a week away. This is NOT the slam-dunk extreme setup that hurtled Hurricane Sandy to her everlasting infamy. Regardless of whether or not a big storm develops, there may be enough atmospheric energy and cold air to produce the first widespread snow cover of the season for the Adirondacks on or around November 7-8.
